"The Republican Party is in chaos. The GOP has divided into three factions and none of these candidates seem able to pull together the differing factions. The party is falling apart."
We sure have heard a lot of that so far this election year. And it’s understandable. Up to this point there is no clear GOP front-runner and the prospect looms that there may be a 4-way tie after Super Tuesday. Surely this is a bad way to elect a candidate to face off against a strong Democratic challenger who for all intensive purposes will be the odds on favorite in November. But the GOP should have seen this coming.
If history is an indication, the reason why there is no clear front-runner, it’s because the front-runner didn’t run. In an election year following a two-term president, the vice-president has clearly been the favorite to win his party’s nomination. In fact, prior to this year the last three two-term vice presidents have gone on to win their party’s nomination in the following election. George H.W. Bush won his party’s nomination and the presidency after serving two terms as vice president. Al Gore and Richard Nixon represented their parties and went on to lose the two closest presidential elections in history. But nonetheless they were two term vice presidents and they won their party’s nominations.
With the exception of John Garner, who served as VP in FDR’s first two terms, we have to go way back to the World War I era to find the last two term sitting VP who did not seek his party’s nomination. Does the name Thomas R. Marshall ring a bell? Chances are most people have never heard the name. Thomas R. Marshall was vice president under Woodrow Wilson (Democrat). He did not seek the presidency after serving two terms as VP and guess what? His party lost that election.
So to say the GOP is in chaos is not necessarily true. Since the front-runner position was left vacant by the two- term VP, the party is in search of a new front man. It’s not an easy process and every state should have a say on whom the front man should be. In this “what have you done for me lately” world, the choices the voters have aren’t necessarily no-brainers. With the exception of John McCain, who’s a sitting Senator, all the other major candidates are “former-something”. You have two former governors, a former mayor and a former senator. So basically you have five candidates who currently are not in public office fighting for a trophy that in this election cycle would normally say, “Republican Presidential Nominee and Two Term VP”. History is scratching off the “Two Term VP” as we speak. Hopefully the winner won’t notice the scratch marks.